Whenever a team are struggling, they look to their most important players to lead the turnaround.
For Liverpool over the past few seasons, that player has always been Mohamed Salah — the source of countless flashes of inspiration since he arrived on Merseyside in the summer of 2017.
More recently, however, these moments have proved elusive.
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In the first leg of the Europa League quarter-final at home against Atalanta of Italy on April 11, Salah mistimed his run and had a ‘goal’ – which would have halved a 2-0 deficit – ruled out for offside; three days later, he had the chance to salvage a point at home to Crystal Palace but his close-range shot got blocked by Tyrick Mitchell; and finally, having scored an early penalty to seemingly light the touchpaper for an unlikely Liverpool comeback in the return with Atalanta, he then missed a golden chance late in the first half, with his team’s European campaign duly fizzling out after the interval.
Perhaps most significant of all, with Liverpool needing to get their season back on track in the Premier League at Fulham on Sunday, manager Jurgen Klopp… left his talisman out of the starting XI.
The question is obvious — why are things not clicking for Salah?
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If anything, the fact Salah has appeared human in recent weeks is a compliment to a player who – even when he is ‘struggling’ – still tops Liverpool’s scoring charts in all competitions this season (23 goals, 12 assists).
There are mitigating circumstances that can help explain why there is such discussion over his form.
Partly, he is a victim of the absurd standards he has set for himself over his first six seasons at Anfield. He is also coming off a prolonged injury layoff, something he has rarely experienced in his career. His share of 73 per cent of the available minutes played this season is the lowest it has been since his transfer from Roma.
He picked up the hamstring injury in January during Egypt’s disappointing Africa Cup of Nations campaign. Salah only appeared in his country’s opening game of the tournament and without him they were knocked out in the last 16, after getting fortunate to progress from the group stage.
Unsurprisingly, Salah’s form has tended to be affected by his fortunes at AFCON. In 2021, Egypt lost on penalties to his then Liverpool team-mate Sadio Mane’s Senegal in the final. When both returned to Anfield, Mane’s form was excellent, yet Salah managed just eight goals in his next 25 appearances – a low return by his levels.
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This season, he did not make his comeback until February 17 against Brentford. It was an exceptional cameo in a 4-1 victory, with Salah registering a goal and an assist, but an injury recurrence then ruled him out until mid-March. Since then, he has five goals in 11 games – far from a crisis, but a definite dip in standards.
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We need to talk about Mohamed Salah
Looking at his attacking output per season since he joined Liverpool, Salah’s expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes this season is the highest it has been in the Premier League. His 0.77 xG per 90 suggests he is getting chances worthy of approximately three goals in four games, although his seven penalties — the most he has had in a Premier League season — might inflate those numbers slightly.
For all his brilliance as a footballer, Salah has never been the most clinical chance converter. He is a player who relies on high volume rather than deadly finishing — only four Premier League players are averaging more shots this season than his 3.6 per 90.
What is noteworthy in the graphic below — which provides a 900-minute rolling average of non-penalty goals and xG over time — is that Salah will typically experience a spike of overperformance during a Premier League season.
Last season, it came late on. In 2018-19 and 2021-22, it happened more in the middle. In 2017-18, Salah’s goalscoring return was unsustainably above expectation across the whole season.
By comparison, his 2023-24 output does not have a spike. If anything, there have been more periods where he is underperforming in front of goal than snatching something out of nothing.
The conclusion? Well, simply that his superhuman output cannot last forever.
Last Thursday’s decider against Atalanta typified Salah’s recent form. Despite his penalty, his failed effort to lob the ball over goalkeeper Juan Musso when one-on-one showed a player who might be suffering from a rare lack of confidence.
“I’m not particularly concerned,” Klopp said after the game in Bergamo. “That’s what happens to strikers. We have to go through this, he has to go through this — he is the most experienced one.
“It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s part of the game. The penalty was super-convincing. Then the next chance, obviously, it was unlucky, but it’s not the first time he missed a chance like that. I won’t make a bigger story out of it.”
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One of the reasons Klopp may have been more sanguine about Salah’s form is that his game is about far more than scoring goals now. Instead, he has become more creative at the top end of the field this season — and for multiple reasons.
With Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into central areas, Joe Gomez lacking his predecessor’s same attacking instincts, and Conor Bradley still establishing himself, Liverpool’s right side has seen Salah take on more responsibility to provide for those ahead of him — primarily Darwin Nunez, who has had 21 chances created for him by Salah in all competitions, which is comfortably more than any other player.
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Accounting for the injury absence of Alexander-Arnold, no Liverpool player this season has created more chances than Salah across the four competitions they have competed in. His rate of 0.4 expected league assists (xA) — which measures the xG value of the shot that is created — per 90 minutes is his best as a Liverpool player.
The right-sided relationship between Salah and Alexander-Arnold has been crucial to Liverpool’s success, but they have only started twice together in 2024 – on New Year’s Day against Newcastle United and that trip to Italy last week.
Alexander-Arnold’s technical quality is matched by few players in world football. Bradley and Gomez performed admirably in his absence, but the pair are not facilitators in the way he is. Bradley is aggressive in possession and more of a runner in transition than a deep ball-player, while long-time centre-half Gomez is not a natural attacking full-back.
That is not to say Salah cannot function without Alexander-Arnold. Liverpool’s right-sided trio were excellent against Brighton & Hove Albion, with Salah, Bradley and Alexis Mac Allister imperious. Salah had 12 shots that day, and despite scoring the winner, he wasted multiple opportunities as he clawed to regain his form. But that was a relatively rare occurrence this season.
Beyond the output at the business end of the field, there are justifiable reasons to be discussing Salah’s relative slump.
Sometimes it is difficult to pinpoint, but his general play is suffering and his decision-making has not been as sharp as usual.
Take this example from that recent defeat against Palace.
As Ibrahima Konate plays the ball out wide, Dominik Szoboszlai makes a seam run behind Palace’s back line. As Salah receives the ball, we have grown accustomed to him playing a first-time forward ball into space (black line). However, with him looking down at the ball, his only option is to play a return pass to Konate as Palace step out.
Something similar happened less than 10 minutes later.
Here, Konate finds Salah and there are two first-time options to keep the attack moving — a square ball to Mac Allister or another hooked ball for Szoboszlai to run onto (both black arrows). Instead, a heavy first touch results in a Salah ball back to goalkeeper Alisson and another attack breaks down.
Here, in the final 15 minutes, Liverpool regain possession from a Palace attack and spring forward to punish the transitional moment. As Salah receives and turns into the centre of the pitch (slide 1), he has two team-mates in space — Andy Robertson, or a more aggressive ball into the path of Cody Gakpo (black arrows, slide 2).
Whether as a result of low confidence or simply poor execution, he instead plays it straight into the path of opponent Daniel Munoz as the potential of another promising attack evaporates.
Salah has evolved in his years under Klopp.
In the past, he was a dynamic and skilful dribbler, capable of beating multiple opponents in the same sequence. This season, that side of his game has dropped off: his volume of 2.9 take-ons — attempting to dribble past a player — per 90 minutes is lower than his previous two campaigns and, notably, this is the first season he has been playing without either Mane or Roberto Firmino alongside him up front.
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There are mitigating factors why this might be, as the return of Liverpol’s right-sided triangle has seen Salah moved into more congested areas inside the pitch, but lower volume has also been met with less success in those take-ons.
Having boasted a 63 per cent take-on success in his 2017-18 debut season, Salah has a success rate of just 34 per cent in this one. A hamstring injury such as the one he suffered in January is likely to influence that explosiveness, and the numbers highlight a style that has become less swashbuckling during this campaign.
By contrast, Luis Diaz has taken the mantle as Liverpool’s take-on king from their left wing — able to drive upfield and wriggle out of trouble with his close control. Add the speed that Nunez, Gakpo and Diogo Jota offer and there is less need for Salah to assume responsibility for always dragging his side into the final third with his pace and trickery.
Salah’s game is built on efficiency and the reputation that he has created over the years means we have come to expect him to be an “output monster” in goals and assists. When team performances suffer at such a crucial time of the season, the natural response is to look to the guy who has bailed you out so many times before.
Taking Salah out of the firing line for that trip to Fulham on Sunday might have been the best strategy from Klopp.
History suggests that a return to form – perhaps as early as the Merseyside derby tonight (Wednesday) at Goodison Park – is unlikely to be far away.
(Top photo: Benjamin Cremel/AFP via Getty Images)